My presentations @EGU2011

On April 7, I gave 2 presentations in the “hydrological forecasting and predictive uncertainty” session at EGU2011.

My first presentation summarised research into the value – expressed in flood risk – of producing hydrological forecasts in terms of probability distributions. It shows that there is added value compared to producing ‘single value’ forecasts. This research will shortly be submitted for publication.

The second presentation considered two different techniques for estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty: the Hydrological Uncertainty Processor (by Krzysztofowicz et al) and Quantile Regression (by Roger Koenker). Both techniques were applied in Ovens basin in Australia. Preliminary results show that the resulting distributions are independent of the technique used, but quite sensitive to the configuration, i.e. to the choice of parameters the distributions are conditioned on. This research will be continued and should lead to a submission to a peer-reviewed journal later this summer.

PDFs of my presentations are available at and

This entry was posted in Flooding, Hydrology, Probability forecasting. Bookmark the permalink.

1 Response to My presentations @EGU2011

  1. Jan says:

    The presentations have been removed from their original location but are available on

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s