Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning

Last summer, Micha Werner and I submitted a paper to HESSD. The paper received fairly favourable reviews and the final revised paper was published in HESS just before Christmas 2011.

Novelties presented in the paper:

  • a framework to compare reductions of flood risk attained by both structural and non-structural measures;
  • a way of incorporating the effects of flood forecasting, warning and response systems in flood risk estimates; and
  • incorporation of forecasting uncertainty in the estimates of flood risk reduction via flood warning systems.

The paper can be downloaded from the HESS pages.

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