EGU2012: Why predict? The value of prediction in hydrological sciences and policy

Why do we make hydrological predictions? To explain? To decide? What makes a good explanatory model? What makes a good model for policy or decision making? Do they differ? How? Why? How are predictions used in science and in policy?

At the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union, taking place this April in Vienna, Austria, we are organising a session to discuss these topics. The session takes place on Monday, April 23rd and consists of

  • an oral block (10:30-12, room 39);
  • a Poster Summaries and Discussion Session (16:30-17:15, room 37), and
  • a poster programme (attendance 17:30-19:00, Hall A, A165-A174).

Session brochure; click to download

Oral programme (Monday, 23 Apr 2012, 10:30-12:00, Room: 39)

Prediction for the long term

  • 10:30-10:45 Will current probabilistic climate change information, as such, improve adaptation? A. Lopez and L.A. Smith
  • 10:45-11:00 Exploring predictions of safe operating spaces for human water use J.H. Kwakkel and J.S. Timmermans

Prediction for the short-to-medium term

  • 11:00-11:15 Assessing The Value of Hydrological Ensemble Predictions for Rio Tinto Alcan’s Hydropower System in Eastern Canada M. Latraverse, P. Cote, and B. Larouche
  • 11:15-11:30 Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa S. Quiroga, A. Iglesias, A. Diz, and L. Garrote
  • 11:30-11:45 The Value of Humans in the Operational River Forecasting Enterprise T.C. Pagano
  • 11:45-12:00 Using ensemble rainfall predictions in a countrywide flood forecasting model in Scotland M.D. Cranston, R. Maxey, A.C.W. Tavendale, and P. Buchanan

Poster programme (Display Time: Monday, 23 Apr 08:00–19:30; Attendance Time: Monday, 23 Apr 17:30–19:00, Hall A

  • A165, EGU2012-2008, Value assessment of a global hydrological forecasting system, N. Candogan Yossef, H. Winsemius, L.P.H. van Beek, E. van Beek, and M.F.P. Bierkens
  • A166, EGU2012-12133, Assessing The Value of Hydrological Ensemble Predictions for Rio Tinto Alcan’s Hydropower System in Eastern Canada, M. Latraverse1, P. Cote, and B. Larouche1
  • A167, EGU2012-9646, Signal, Insight and Noise: Contrasting the Decision Relevance of climate models with climate science, A. Lopez and L.A. Smith
  • A168, EGU2012-2927, Learning from a History of Futures: 60 Years of Scenario use for Water Management in the Netherlands, H. Middelkoop and M. Haasnoot
  • A169, EGU2012-13145, Prediction, Communication and Urban policies. Is there enough space for three faces on a single medal?, D. Miozzo, L. Ferraris, and M. Altamura
  • A170, EGU2012-14070, In search of criteria for the integrated hydrological model NHI to adequately support national decisions on climate adaptation in the Netherlands, W.J. de Lange
  • A172, EGU2012-11372, Runoff inundation hazard cartography, N. Pineux and A. Degré
  • A173, EGU2012-484, An Imperialist Competitive Algorithm Artificial Neural Network Method to Predict Runoff, S. Ashraf Vaghefi, S. J. Mousavi, K.C. Abbaspour, and H. Yang
  • A174, EGU2012-5447, The value of “black-box” neural network modeling in subsurface flow prediction, E. Paleologos, I. Skitzi, and K. Katsifarakis
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