This afternoon, at the FloodRisk2012 conference in Rotterdam, I will present on the findings of the Probabilistic Forecast Use project that we’re currently finalising.
There is a strong theoretical rationale for using probabilistic rather than deterministic forecasts. Currently, however, there exist no best practices for effectively using probability forecasts. In the project, we tried to contribute to the development thereof. I think we achieved quite a lot. The main findings I am presenting on this afternoon are:
- Hydrological forecasting community supplies hazards whereas often, users are more interested in consequences
- Manipulating – not understanding – probabilities is an issue; asking the right question of a forecast largely resolves this.
- Disclaimers apply to the risk rationale
There’s more to say about the topic, obviously. Have a look at attached presentation slides and let me know what you think! If you can make it to the conference: today, Wednesday November 21st, 4pm, room 6.