“Predictive uncertainty” seminar – April 1, 2015, Faculty of TPM

The future is uncertain. Forecasting reduces this uncertainty but cannot eliminate it. Residual uncertainty remains. Risk management requires that these residual uncertainties are adequately characterised. Techniques for characterisation vary from probabilistic forecasting to scenario based forecasting, depending on the nature of the uncertainties.

The present seminar will highlight some techniques for characterising uncertainties about the future as well as approaches for managing these uncertainties for the purpose of decision-making and, in the context of hazard management, maintaining required safety levels. Speakers will discuss a range of uncertainties and decision-making approaches. See below programme for details.

The seminar is organised at the occasion of the defence of the dissertation “Estimating real-time predictive hydrological uncertainty” by Jan Verkade. The seminar will take place on April 1, 2015 from 13:00hrs onwards at Delft University, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Room B.

Participation is free but we do ask that you register via http://bit.do/pred-unc-seminar

The seminar is sponsored by

  • Delft Safety & Security Institute (DSyS)
  • Delft Infrastructures & Mobility Initiative (DIMI)

13:00

Venue open 

13:30

Pieter van Gelder

(Delft University of Technology)

Welcome and introduction

 

 

 

 

Block I: real-time
predictive hydrological uncertainty

13:40

Kristie Franz

(Iowa State University)

Challenges
of improving streamflow prediction through remote
sensing data applications

14:00

Hannah Cloke

(University of Reading)

Forecasting the 2014 England and Wales floods: the role of forecasting
and uncertainty

14:20

Marie-Amélie Boucher

(Université du Québec à Chicoutimi)

Multimodel hydrological forecasts for hydropower production

 

 

 

14:40

Coffee break

 

 

 

 

 

Block II: predictive uncertainty in related
disciplines

14:55

Hans van Lint

(Delft University of Technology)

Predictive uncertainty in traffic management

15:15

Warren
Walker

(Delft University of Technology)

Adapt or
Perish: An Approach to Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

15:35

Ibo van der Poel

(Delft University of Technology)

Uncertainty: a philosophical perspective

15:55

Jaap Kwadijk

(Deltares; Twente University)

Anticipating
Change: Enabling Delta Life for Future Generations

 

 

 

16:15

Jan Verkade

(Deltares; Delft University of
Technology; Rijkswaterstaat)

Closure

16:30 – 17:30

 

Drinks

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