“Predictive uncertainty” seminar – April 1, 2015, Faculty of TPM

The future is uncertain. Forecasting reduces this uncertainty but cannot eliminate it. Residual uncertainty remains. Risk management requires that these residual uncertainties are adequately characterised. Techniques for characterisation vary from probabilistic forecasting to scenario based forecasting, depending on the nature of the uncertainties.

The present seminar will highlight some techniques for characterising uncertainties about the future as well as approaches for managing these uncertainties for the purpose of decision-making and, in the context of hazard management, maintaining required safety levels. Speakers will discuss a range of uncertainties and decision-making approaches. See below programme for details.

The seminar is organised at the occasion of the defence of the dissertation “Estimating real-time predictive hydrological uncertainty” by Jan Verkade. The seminar will take place on April 1, 2015 from 13:00hrs onwards at Delft University, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Room B.

Participation is free but we do ask that you register via http://bit.do/pred-unc-seminar

The seminar is sponsored by

  • Delft Safety & Security Institute (DSyS)
  • Delft Infrastructures & Mobility Initiative (DIMI)


Venue open 


Pieter van Gelder

(Delft University of Technology)

Welcome and introduction





Block I: real-time
predictive hydrological uncertainty


Kristie Franz

(Iowa State University)

of improving streamflow prediction through remote
sensing data applications


Hannah Cloke

(University of Reading)

Forecasting the 2014 England and Wales floods: the role of forecasting
and uncertainty


Marie-Amélie Boucher

(Université du Québec à Chicoutimi)

Multimodel hydrological forecasts for hydropower production





Coffee break






Block II: predictive uncertainty in related


Hans van Lint

(Delft University of Technology)

Predictive uncertainty in traffic management



(Delft University of Technology)

Adapt or
Perish: An Approach to Planning Under Deep Uncertainty


Ibo van der Poel

(Delft University of Technology)

Uncertainty: a philosophical perspective


Jaap Kwadijk

(Deltares; Twente University)

Change: Enabling Delta Life for Future Generations





Jan Verkade

(Deltares; Delft University of
Technology; Rijkswaterstaat)


16:30 – 17:30



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